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IMPACT – HIGH
Nearly one year after voting to leave the EU, U.K. voters have handed a stunning defeat to Prime Minister Theresa May by voting out the Tory majority, weakening her hold on the government and complicating Brexit negotiations between the U.K. and the EU, which are set to begin in 10 days.
The Conservative Party is expected to end with 318 seats, leaving a hung Parliament with no party commanding the 326 required for a governing majority in the House of Commons. Jeremy Corbyn, whose Labour Party picked up 32 seats for a total of 262, called for May to resign. However, May announced she will work with the Democratic Unionist Party, which now holds 10 seats in Parliament, to form a government.
May claims that a Conservative government supported by the DUP will provide certainty, but with Brexit talks due to commence during the week of June 19, delays to the negotiations are likely. The loss of a majority government could force a softer Brexit or make the prospects of no deal more plausible. “Hard Brexit went in the rubbish bin tonight,” former Chancellor George Osborne said in televised remarks as exit polls came in.
EU leaders expressed concern that Brexit talks would stall. “We need a government that can act. With a weak negotiating partner, there’s the danger that the negotiations will turn out badly for both sides,” said European Commission member Guenther Oettinger. The U.K. is under a two-year deadline to complete a deal and exit, having already started the clock when May triggered formal withdrawal procedures in March. European Council President Donald Tusk said on Twitter that there is “no time to lose” in starting Brexit negotiations to avoid a no-deal.
On Friday, May resisted mounting pressure to step down, insisting that only her party had the legitimacy to govern and to bring certainty and the ability to lead Britain forward at this crucial time. She announced she will form a government with the support of the small Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland. The DUP, led by Arlene Foster, is pro-Brexit but opposes a hard Brexit and does not want to see a hard border between Ireland and the U.K. The fragile partnership could put pressure on the Tories to negotiate for a soft Brexit in which the U.K. would retain some free movement and membership in the single market.
May gambled that calling a snap election three years early would secure a mandate for pursuing the hard Brexit she promised that would take the U.K. out of the single market and end free movement between the EU and U.K. Initially, May was expected to win convincingly but her double-digit lead dwindled as the campaign closed.
The Labour Party won big gains, having run on an anti-austerity economic platform, and the election result could be seen as a victory for Corbyn and a signal that May will need to establish a new vision for Brexit. Labour supports Brexit but rejects a hard break, calling for the U.K. to retain the benefits of the single market and customs union and to immediately and unilaterally guarantee the existing rights of EU nationals living in the U.K.
BAL Analysis: May has said she will “get on” with Brexit but there is doubt that her hard Brexit strategy could be workable given its seeming rejection by the voters, as well as the DUP’s likely position favoring a soft Brexit and the fact that any Brexit deal will be subject to parliamentary scrutiny where the Tories do not hold a majority. May’s hand in negotiations has been weakened while the hand of those who advocate a soft break from the EU has been strengthened.
May now has just over a week to formally strike a deal with the DUP, as well as establish a new government and re-align her vision for Brexit. BAL will be reporting on Brexit developments and the impact on business as news unfolds.
This alert has been provided by the BAL Global Practice group in the United Kingdom. For additional information, please contact uk@bal.com.
Copyright © 2017 Berry Appleman & Leiden LLP. All rights reserved. Reprinting or digital redistribution to the public is permitted only with the express written permission of Berry Appleman & Leiden LLP. For inquiries please contact copyright@bal.com
IMPACT – MEDIUM
U.K. Visas and Immigration has changed its processes for handling enquiries from customers and immigration agents.
Key Points:
BAL Analysis: UKVI customers with visa enquiries should follow the instructions above or contact their BAL professional.
Copyright © 2017 Berry Appleman & Leiden LLP. All rights reserved. Reprinting or digital redistribution to the public is permitted only with the express written permission of Berry Appleman & Leiden LLP. For inquiries please contact copyright@bal.com.
Voters will go to the polls June 8 in an election that could shape the United Kingdom’s immigration programs for years to come.
The U.K. is set to begin formal negotiations with the European Union on the U.K.’s departure from the EU after the country triggered Article 50 in March. Prime Minister Theresa May called the snap election in April, hoping to strengthen the Conservative Party’s majority and bolster her Brexit negotiating hand. May has sought to put Brexit at the heart of the campaign from the beginning, saying political “game-playing” threatened to undermine the U.K.’s break from the EU.
“Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit,” May said in April, “and it will cause damaging uncertainty and instability to the country.”
May’s once-commanding lead in the polls has narrowed significantly, however. And voters will now have their say on what path the government should take on Brexit and other immigration issues. The parties differ substantially on their positions.
The Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats all say they want to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland; however, depending on the election outcome, they may differ in their negotiating approach with the EU on this issue. The EU has also said it does not want a hard border with between Ireland and the U.K.
The U.K.’s smaller political parties are also using the election to advance their agendas. The Scottish National Party is campaigning to give Scottish voters the chance to leave the U.K. once the terms of the Brexit deal are known. The right-wing UK Independence Party is pushing for a “one in, one out” immigration policy, aiming to reduce net migration to zero in a five-year period.
BAL Analysis: The election could have significant consequences for how the U.K. will approach negotiations with the EU. May had hoped to solidify support behind her by calling for the snap election, but the move was risky. Even if May wins the election, if Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn puts up a better-than-expected showing, May’s negotiating position may not be strengthened and could even be weakened. BAL is closely following the election and particularly the potential Brexit and immigration consequences and will continue updating clients on important developments.
What is the change? Biometrics appointments for U.K. visa applicants in New York City, San Francisco and other biometrics hubs are currently booked up as much as three weeks in advance.
What does the change mean? While each case is different and some applicants may be able to book biometrics appointments more quickly than others, visa applicants should expect delays when applying for a U.K. visa in the U.S.
Background: The delays appear due to a rush on visitor and work visas as summer approaches. Delays may be particularly acute at main hubs, such as New York City and San Francisco, though applicants are advised to plan in advance and anticipate possible delays no matter where they are applying.
BAL Analysis: BAL is working with clients who may be affected to advise that employers may need to push back start dates or consider expedited options such as premium processing. Contact BAL with any case-specific questions.
The United Kingdom raised its threat level to “critical” late Tuesday, with Prime Minister Theresa May saying another attack could be imminent after 22 people were killed in a bombing Monday night in Manchester.
May said the independent Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre raised the threat level to its highest level as officials continued work to determine whether a “wider group of individuals” are linked to the Manchester attack.
“I do not want the public to feel unduly alarmed,” May said. “We have faced a serious terrorist threat in our country for many years, and the operational response … is a proportionate and sensible response to the threat that our security experts judge we face.”
Key points:
Background: Officials raised the threat level after a man set off a bomb at an Ariana Grande concert late Monday in Manchester, leaving 22 dead. The attack drew widespread condemnation, and authorities urged people to exercise caution. The U.S. Embassy in London encouraged “U.S. citizens in the United Kingdom to directly contact family members in the United States.” The embassy further urged people to remain aware of their surroundings “especially in crowds or at large events, and monitor local news sources for updates.” French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel both released statements expressing shock. “I am following the reports from Manchester with great sadness and shock,” Merkel said. “It is incomprehensible that someone could use a joyful pop concert to kill or seriously injure so many people.”
BAL Analysis: The increased security measures raise the possibility of delays when traveling within the U.K. British and foreign nationals are urged to exercise caution and follow instructions from local authorities, particularly while the threat level remains at its current level. Foreign visitors are advised to register with their home country’s embassy in London, and business travelers may want to make sure their company’s human resources department is aware of their presence in the U.K.
This alert has been provided by the BAL Global Practice group. For additional information, please contact BerryApplemanLeiden@bal.com.
The following is a roundup of recent developments concerning Brexit negotiations and the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union.
News Summary
European Union leaders have adopted Brexit negotiating plans and indicate they will focus on the rights of EU citizens, the Irish border and U.K. payments to the EU when formal negotiations begin.
Voters in the U.K. are preparing for a June 8 election, with Prime Minister Theresa May looking like the odds-on favorite to win reelection and perhaps strengthen her Brexit negotiating hand. May released a Conservative manifesto Thursday, calling for a dramatic reduction in migration to the U.K., doubling the levy companies pay to employ non-EU nationals and promising to put off a second Scottish referendum. The Labour Party has said it would scrap the Conservatives’ “hard Brexit” approach, while the Liberal Democrats say they would give U.K. voters the opportunity to accept or reject a final Brexit deal.
Early data points on Brexit’s impact on the business community are not promising. One report says recruiters are having trouble finding qualified candidates across industries, while another suggests that London may lose as many as 9,000 banking jobs to continental Europe. Businesses along the Ireland-Northern Ireland border face uncertainty. And a letter from Japan to the U.K. and EU reveals how closely non-EU countries are watching developments.
Immigration
EU adopts Brexit guidelines
At a special summit on Brexit on April 29, EU leaders quickly adopted the negotiating framework proposed by European Council President Donald Tusk and chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Under the guidelines, before negotiating future relations with the U.K., the EU-27 and the U.K. must first conclude negotiations on three issues: the rights of EU citizens, the Irish border question, and settling the U.K.’s financial bill with the EU. Barnier made a trip to the Irish border earlier this month where he said he would work hard to prevent a hard border but that some controls may be inevitable in order to meet EU border management requirements.
EU nationals in the U.K.
The rights of EU nationals in the U.K. may prove to be a thornier issue to negotiate than anticipated, as both sides have hardened their demands. May has refused to extend a unilateral guarantee to the approximately 3 million EU nationals living in the U.K., insisting on reciprocal rights for 1 million Britons in the EU, while Barnier seeks an “iron clad guarantee” of EU citizens’ rights before the parties move on to negotiate a trade deal. Both sides have drawn up lists of the various rights of EU citizens, including rights related to labor issues, social security benefits and residency, each of which must be negotiated. Barnier has insisted that the EU Court of Justice continue to protect the rights of EU citizens and their family members after Brexit; May’s hard Brexit plan seeks to end the European Court of Justice’s jurisdiction over the U.K.
Logistical hurdles
The Institute for Government, meanwhile, issued a report highlighting the administrative and logistical challenges of developing and implementing a new immigration system. “The scale of the task makes successful implementation of a new immigration regime by April 2019 unfeasible,” the report said, “not just for government, who will need to design and deliver the regime, but also the employers, landlords and providers of public services who both rely on the system and support its functioning.” The report noted that May has discussed the possibility of an “implementation phase” during the period between when the U.K. formally leaves the EU and when it takes complete control over its immigration regime, but EU leaders have said the U.K. would be required to accept EU laws on migration during such a transitional period.
Politics
Election manifestos
While the U.K. and EU continue their pre-negotiation posturing, U.K. voters are preparing to head to the polls June 8. Prime Minister Theresa May, viewed widely as the frontrunner, released a Conservative Party manifesto Thursday that contained a number of immigration-related measures, including:
May called for the snap election in the hopes of securing a mandate to deliver on Brexit. Her renewed pledge to reduce net migration to the U.K. from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands raised some eyebrows. The promise has been a mantra of the Conservative Party since David Cameron vowed to slash immigration before his unexpected election win in 2010. George Osborne’s London Evening Standard ran an editorial that called the pledge unrealistic and suggested it lacked support in May’s cabinet.
The Labour party released its manifesto Tuesday, pledging to scrap the Conservatives’ approach to Brexit. Labour said it would immediately guarantee existing rights for EU nationals in the U.K., a welcome pledge for those who are affected or who believe it is important to guarantee such rights. It rejected what it calls “bogus immigration targets” in favor of developing new migration systems with input from business, trade unions, the devolved governments and other stakeholders. Labour says it accepts the Brexit referendum result, but that it would reject May’s hard Brexit approach and would work on “retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union.”
The Liberal Democrats go a step further in their manifesto, saying they want to put another referendum before U.K. voters, giving them the option to accept or reject the final agreement the U.K. reaches with the EU. This could create additional uncertainty, but it remains to be seen what the public thinks is the most sensible approach on Brexit. Ultimately, the party in power after the election will determine how immigration policy is shaped for years to come.
Macron on Brexit
The French presidential election results brought a sigh of relief in Brussels. With Emmanuel Macron’s win, not only has the EU averted another possible defection from the bloc, but also gained a pro-European partner in Paris. Macron advocates a strong EU and has said the EU-27 should be “tough” on the U.K. and “extremely rigorous” about the consequences of leaving the EU. However, he also indicated in February that he would be inclined to guarantee the rights of U.K. citizens already living in France.
Business
Formal Brexit negotiations have not even begun yet, but some data suggest that U.K. businesses are already experiencing negative repercussions. A Markit/REC Report on Jobs released May 9 found that while unemployment is at its lowest rate since 2005, recruiters are having a tough time finding suitable job candidates in such fields as engineering, IT and nursing. REC Chief Executive Kevin Green cited “Brexit uncertainty” as a problem, saying that people are both less likely to come to the U.K. from Europe and are less likely to leave their current job.
Reuters, meanwhile, reported that London’s largest banks are planning to move about 9,000 jobs to continental Europe in the next two years. The BBC reported that questions about the border with Ireland remain a concern for border towns, with the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre issuing a study finding that businesses along the Ireland-Northern Ireland border currently benefit from €3 billion (£2.5 billion) in cross-border trade. Such reports emphasize the need for the U.K. government to consider carefully its approach to Brexit negotiations, as this could influence where businesses decide to place staff in Europe, even before the U.K. formally leaves the EU.
With that in mind, non-EU countries are following Brexit negotiations closely. In a 15-page “Message to the United Kingdom and the European Union,” for example, the Japanese government made a number of requests of the EU and the U.K., ranging from providing adequate notice about any policy changes to maintaining an immigration system that allows companies to have access to high-skilled foreign workers. “Uncertainty is a major concern for an economy,” the memo said. “We hope that predictability is secured whereby all stakeholders, not just the negotiating parties, have a clear idea of the post-Brexit landscape.”
Preparing Your Company
While the future is uncertain, many companies have begun taking proactive steps to support their EU employees and to plan for eventual changes to free movement. BAL continues to provide Brexit-related services at varying levels depending on individual corporate needs. Brexit immigration planning may include:
Employees
Employees can also take steps to prepare for Brexit, including making sure they are aware of their legal status in the U.K. and checking whether they can claim to be a “qualified person” under EU law. Employees should ensure they possess:
BAL encourages and welcomes communicating with the BAL London team regarding Brexit developments, as we continue to work with the Government to prepare for reforms.
Should you have any questions or require more information on how BAL can help with Brexit planning, please contact us at uk@bal.com.
European Council President Donald Tusk said in a letter Friday that the European Union’s Brexit negotiations with the United Kingdom should initially focus on guarantees for EU nationals in the U.K., the U.K.’s financial obligations to the EU and preventing the establishment of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The letter was sent to European Council members a day before EU officials will meet to adopt guidelines for the EU’s Brexit negotiations, and Tusk repeated that the EU will focus on negotiating the U.K.’s departure from the EU before it begins talks on the EU and U.K.’s future relationship. “Before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past,” he said.
BAL Analysis: While negotiations have not yet formally begun, Tusk’s letter offers an indication of the line of negotiation that the EU is likely to pursue. The EU and U.K. both appear interested in an agreement that would protect the status of EU and U.K. nationals in the U.K. and EU, though no guarantees have been made yet. The EU’s positioning speaks to the concerns businesses and EU nationals have about the future status of EU nationals in the U.K., as immigration continues to be at the heart of Brexit talks.
BAL will continue to follow Brexit-related immigration developments and keep clients informed on key developments.
This alert has been provided by the BAL U.S. Practice group. For additional information, please contact BerryApplemanLeiden@bal.com.
Prime Minister Theresa May has called for an early election, hoping to consolidate support behind her as the U.K. Government prepares for two years of Brexit negotiations with the European Union.
The election would be held June 8. May previously said she did not support an early election, but indicated Tuesday she would push for an election to seek popular support for decisions she will make in negotiating the U.K.’s departure from the EU.
“The country is coming together, but Westminster is not,” May said, criticizing the Brexit posture of Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.
Background: The U.K. invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on March 29, officially signaling the country’s intent to leave the EU. The EU has indicated it will pursue a hard line in Brexit negotiations, signaling the bloc would force the U.K. to accept EU laws and budget fees if the U.K. seeks the kind of implementation phase May has said she supports. May’s call for an election came just before formal negotiations are set to begin next month.
BAL Analysis: May’s push for a June 8 election carries no immediate immigration consequences. No matter what the election’s outcome, changes to the U.K. and EU’s immigration policies toward each other must be negotiated over the next two years. The election could have significant consequences in terms of the line of negotiating the U.K. will take, but how that will affect post-Brexit U.K.-EU relations is yet to be determined.
What is the change? The Home Office has updated guidance for sponsors stating that UK Visas and Immigration may begin conducting compliance visits at any office where migrant workers are working, including third-party locations such as client sites.
What does the change mean? The guidance says it is a sponsor’s “responsibility to ensure that the third party is aware of the possibility of unplanned and unannounced visits and checks being conducted at their premises” and to ensure cooperation with authorities.
Background: The guidance states that during compliance visits officers may want to: verify information provided in sponsor license applications, check that sponsors are complying with their sponsorship duties, interview migrant workers, interview any employees involved in recruitment of migrant workers, inspect records, or check on other workers to make sure sponsors are complying with obligations to prevent illegal work. The guidance makes it clear that compliance officers “may visit you and any physical addresses where your migrant workers carry out their work,” including third-party sites.
BAL Analysis: The consequences of failing to meet sponsorship obligations or providing misleading or inconsistent information can be severe. The Home Office states that discrepancies uncovered after a visa decision has been made will lead to action against a sponsor. This may include prosecution, curtailing sponsorship and refusal of future applications. BAL is able to assist sponsors in preparing for compliance visits at their place of business or at third-party sites. All sponsors should be aware of the movements of their sponsored employees and prepare third-party sites for possible site visits.
EU member states are expected to sign off on a set of tough Brexit negotiating points, including a requirement that the U.K. accept EU laws and budget if it seeks a transitional “implementation phase” following the U.K.’s break from the EU in the spring of 2019.
Background: The U.K. has indicated that it will pursue a “hard Brexit,” where it leaves Europe’s single market and retakes control of its migration processes for EU nationals. The U.K. invoked Article 50 March 29, officially signaling the country’s intent to leave the EU after the U.K. narrowly voted to leave the bloc in 2016.
BAL Analysis: While negotiations have not yet formally begun, the EU has indicated that it will take a hard line with the U.K. The U.K. may push for a transitional phase under which free movement would continue for a set amount of time after the U.K. officially leaves the EU, but it is unclear whether the government would be willing to accept the costs associated with such an arrangement that, for now, the EU has indicated that it would seek to impose. Businesses will hope for a transitional phase to adjust to big changes that look set to lie ahead for the U.K, and recent guidance from the Government regarding the rights of EU nationals could be seen as a move to reassure businesses and EU nationals that the law remains unchanged until formal Brexit.